polPakistan Oil Feild Result Key Highlights: KASB Research

POL posted FY13 net earnings of PRs45.78/sh and DPS of PRs45, which is well below ours and market expectation of EPS of PRs49.83. On the other hand, Final DPS of PRs25 (FY13 PRs45) is in line with our expectation.

Sales increased by 1% YoY on the back of Pak rupee devaluation and slight increase in Oil production of 1%. On the flipside, Gas production was down by 13%

Higher seismic studies conducted by company JV partners increased the exploration cost due to which our earnings expectations were missed

Other income of the company came lower by 23% YoY (33%QoQ).

It is worth mentioning here that POL’s payout ratio for the last 2 years is 100%

Our PO remains intact at PRs587, with FY14E EPS of PRs66.1 (DPS of PRs58.0). We maintain our Buy on POL.

Going forward, we believe that the company earnings will increase as full impact of Makori East-II, Mamikhel and Maramzai will be realized. Also commencement of Makori GPF by the end of CY13 will bode well for the company.

 

 

  1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 QoQ FY12 FY13 YoY
Net Sales 6,646 7,098 7,680 7,454 -3% 28,624 28,878 1%
Operating Exp. 1,644 1,825 2,008 2,090 4% 6,262 7,566 21%
Royalty 641 644 757 691 -9% 2,731 2,734 0%
EBITDAX 4,442 4,716 5,014 4,608 -8% 19,909 18,313 -8%
Exploration cost 201 518 415 659 59% 594 1,792 202%
Other Income 393 970 355 236 -33% 2,547 1,954 -23%
PBT 3,609 4,001 3,926 3,015 -23% 17,376 14,551 -16%
PAT 2,566 3,098 2,961 2,204 -26% 11,853 10,828 -9%
EPS 10.8 13.1 12.5 9.3 -26% 50.1 45.8 -9%
DPS 0 20 0.0 25.0   52.5 45.0  
Key ratios           0    
Realized Oil (US$/bbl) 111 107 91 96 5% 96 89 -7%
Gas (US$/mcf) 3 3 3.6 3.5 -1% 3.2 3.6 10%
Dubai Light (US$/bbl) 119 108 107 111 4% 111 105 -5%
Production           0    
Oil(bpd) 4,244 4,244 4390 4987 14% 4657 4705 1%
Gas(mmcfd) 0 79 77 71 -7% 89 77 -13%
Total(mmboe) 0.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 -2% 1.8 1.7 -5%
Key ratios           0.00    
Royalty (%) 12% 12% 12% 12% 7% 12% 11% -7%
Effective tax rate (%) 29% 29% 23% 25% 9% 32% 27% -15%

 

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